Energy prices are predicted to increase significantly in 2004, resulting from a significant increase in demand. Higher prices are in turn prompting a move toward greater energy efficiency in the home and in consumers' purchases. Historically, such moves have not come easily. Fluorescent light bulbs, while significantly more efficient, are 8-10 times as expensive as regular incandescent bulbs. However, consumers expect that such costs are offset by the energy cost savings and the significantly increased life of the bulb.

Potential savings are significant. The article points out that if every household replaced its five most-frequently-used lights with fluorescent bulbs, energy savings would be equal to closing down 21 power plants—and would reduce the emission of gases that contribute to global warming. However, such a move to realize the full benefits would require the purchase of some 500 million bulbs, a level of demand that the industry is not yet prepared to meet.

Further, given that 2004 is an election year, politicians may choose to stake out positions on energy efficiency, offering rebates for purchasing energy-efficient appliances, tax credits, subsidies and the like. All of these are likely to increase consumer demand for greater energy efficiency.

(Updated January, 2004)